Let me start off by saying this post will be slightly different from the usual posts here. I typically try to add value for the reader when they reach the end of a post, by way of some tutorial, actionable insight, or a takeaway learning. However, this one will be more of a self opinion and attempting to formalize my thoughts on luck.
I found it slightly interesting that the people I deem successful often attribute their success partly to luck. Itâll help to define a few things here so weâre on the same page.
- In this post, success refers to career and financial success. Yes - there are a ton of ways to measure success, and everyoneâs definition can be different.
- The successful people I refer to in this post are people I have at least had a conversation with, not just people you see on the news, or podcasts, or from a friend of a friend. Now I know this might be a tiny sample size, but I do like to think my current social circle at work and outside is full of âsuccessful peopleâ.
Often when I see and get inspired by successful people, I think about what might be replicated, and what was simply âluckâ.
âI was luckyâ
Iâm trying to recall the podcasts and articles Iâve read over the years, and I think that in addition to the successful people around me, many CEOs and entrepreneurs do indeed admit they were âluckyâ. Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway): Frequently emphasizes the âovarian lottery,â or the luck of being born in the U.S. at the right time, as the primary determinant of his success, rather than just skill. Mark Zuckerberg (Meta): Admitted in his 2017 Harvard commencement speech that success isnât just about hard work or good ideas, but also about luck, noting, âIf I had to support my family growing up instead of having time to code⌠I wouldnât be standing here todayâ. Sundar Pichai (Google): Acknowledged there is âalways an element of luckâ involved in climbing the ranks at a tech giant. Charlie Munger (Berkshire Hathaway): Consistently stated that luck plays a significant role in success.
I wouldnât consider myself super successful, but Iâm in this camp at times. When others ask me how I got to where I am today, I will admit some of it was luck. I especially agree with Sundar on how thereâs always an element of luck climbing the ranks at a big tech company.
Now in a casual environment that isnât for serious deep conversation, I will say I was lucky. However, deep down, I canât help but feel I also worked really hard to get to where I am.
âI worked hard for myselfâ
Now I did look this up specifically on the Internet (cue my confirmation bias) to see if most successful folks attribute their success to luck â but it does seem like not every person is willing to admit they were lucky.
This video struck me hard though:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LopI4YeC4I
The video essentially discusses how thereâs an egocentric bias that can lead people to think their effort contributed much more to their success than the randomness/luck that they inherited (where they were born, when, etc).
Heck - I donât want to admit that fully either. I will agree that it was luck, but if thereâs a random person trying to put me down by saying I was lucky, I will definitely disagree. I think luck is a factor, but Iâd like to think that if I didnât put in the work, I wouldnât be reaping the rewards and benefits.
This is one of those things that arenât fully black and white. Maybe at the casino, where the games are constrained, luck is a mathematical probability, but in the game of life/reality, it is quite impossible to say what might have been.
Manufacturing Luck
Now I personally believe in âright place, right time, right opportunityâ. Chalk it up simply to luck, but Iâve found it quite useful to work hard enough, or to give a damn about something others may not, that you position yourself for the best possible outcome.
The CEOs and entrepreneurs above may admit to luck, but if you go one step further and understand their habits or early formative years, what they worked on, you might begin to see a pattern. Each of them credits something they did growing up that turned out to be really useful, or that built character. I donât think this is very obvious while doing the thing. Rather, it becomes obvious in hindsight.
A personal example here would be that while I was privileged enough to be able to grow up with loving parents who basically programmed/shaped me into the person I am today, one of the things that have made me âluckyâ was my command of English. My parents knew that English being the international language meant it would open up a lot of doors for me, and worked hard to get me to have English as my first language, with Mandarin/Chinese as my second. Now itâs certainly my luck that I was born into a family with parents who had this foresight, but I also worked hard to build up my command of English! I read a lot of books, stayed up late, and wrote essays. Now clearly it has paid off. I made a lot of friends and got things done much faster at work thanks to simply understanding what others wanted, and being able to get things done. Just knowing English definitely isnât the only thing that got me where I wanted to go, but I would say I âlucked outâ being where I was born and the circumstances I grew up in.
Having a routine that incorporates your goal makes you more likely to reach it. This is hard work. This is not luck, but that hard work is something that manufactures it. Itâs also possible that after working hard you get shafted at work, or you just hit an unfortunate economic downturn, evaporating all your hard work. My point here is that there is some ability within you to walk a path you want. While there are a lot of factors that may be out of your control, it is very much also the case that there are a lot of things that are within your control, and you should do what you can!
Discounting Luck
One thing that really struck me from the Veritasium video was that thereâs a bit of a paradox here. While it is important to be thankful for the luck you may have, youâre more likely to be successful if you simply do not consider it. I find this to be true; itâs a bit of a mind game, as believing that luck will help me on my quest will naturally just defeat my motivation to outwork others or work hard.
Itâs a very useful delusion to believe youâre in full control of your destiny. If you believed you were unlucky, you would more likely just fail anyway.
Increasing Luck
I donât really know how to wrap up or end this. Thereâs definitely survivor bias, but being able to have gratitude for the luck you received is not something that makes you weaker; if anything, the video by Veritasium also highlights research showing that others will consider you kinder.
When competition is fierce, being talented and hardworking is important, but it is not enough to guarantee success.
You must believe youâre in total complete control of your destiny, and success comes down to your own talent and hard work. If you do achieve success, acknowledge that luck played a role, and you should do what you can to increase the luck of others.
Perhaps luck is seen as the key to success by successful people themselves, or by the general public that may have an opinion of successful people. Very few people, if any, really see the person that shows up every day. After all, there is a Chinese proverb:
One can study for ten years in obscurity, but as soon as one passes the examination the whole world knows
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Good luck!